The highest-level think tank of China was recently established in Beijing, which means the start of reform to China’s think tanks. 

A  think tank, also called a policy institute, is an organization, institute, corporation, or group that conducts research and engages in advocacy in areas such as social policy, political strategy, economy, science or technology issues, industrial or business policies, or military advice.

What’s above is the depiction of the think tank from the Wikipedia (www. wikipedia org). From that we can see the importance of the think tank for a country. China’s think tanks also have played an important role during the period of reform and opening. Now, China needs new think tanks to deal with the new economic and political situation.

71-year old Zeng Peiyan, who retired from the position of vice premier a year ago, has returned to public life in a new position, as the chief director of the China Centre of International Economic Exchanges (CCIEE) in late March.

As the provider of the strategic analysis for the government in decision-makings, the economists and economic think tanks had misjudgments in the global financial crisis and China’s economic situation. People are disappointed with them; people criticize them. Therefore, the new CCIEE is bearing great expectations. The establishment of this semi-official high-level think tank also starts the reform to China’s think tanks.

New Official Think Tanks as Heroes

The CCIEE established in Beijing on March 20 was the integration of the International Corporation Center and Foreign Affair Consultation Center formerly under the National Development and Research Commission (NDRC) organization was described as a “super think-tank” with some of the leading figures from the fields of the politics and business. Most of its 122 standing directors are the high-ranked government officials, scholars and entrepreneurs doing business administration for a long time, including 7 retired officials.

In addition to former vice premier Zeng as its chief director, there are 8 executive deputy directors, including Wang Chunzheng, the former chairman of the Office of the Central Finance Leadership Team, the economist Li Yining; the dean of the Chinese University of Hong Kong, Liu Zunyi, the former vice-chairman of the State Development and Reform Council, Zhang Xiaoqiang; the head of the State Development Bank, Chen Yuan; the head of the economic management academy of Tsinghua University, Qian Yingyi, President of the China National Petroleum Corporation, Jiang Jiemin; and the head of the China National School of Administration, Wei Liqun.

It is known that about 19 items have been listed as the main topics for study of the CCIEE in this year, including the possibility of the second wave of the financial crisis, the formation of new international economic order, the Sino-US strategic economic cooperation, the Sino-Japanese strategic mutual beneficial relationship, the Sino-Russian cooperative study on Mid-Asian energy resources, the decision-making systems of different countries’ governments and the role of think tanks in the government’s economic decision-makings, etc. The first movement of the CCIEE after its establishment is the Global Think Tank Summit which is going to be held in late June in Beijing. It is said that the leaders of 200 to 300 world-famous think tanks and the Top 500 enterprises will be invited to attend this summit, providing their advices for China to get rid of the financial crisis and keep its fast and stable economic growth rate.

Actually, before the foundation of the CCIEE, there are some think tanks in China. According to the 2008 Report on Global Think Tanks from the US Pennsylvania University, there are 5645 think tanks in the world, most of which are unofficial and non-profitable. There are 3080 think tanks in North America and Western Europe, taking 56.35% of the total number in the world. Only 653 think tanks are laid in Asia. The USA has the largest number of think tanks, which is 1777-followed by Great Britain with 283 ones and Germany with 186 ones. India has 121 think tanks, the largest number in Asia. Following it is Japan, with 105 ones. In Mainland China there are only 74 think tanks getting approved.

The think tanks in China having real effect in the government’s decision-makings are those official ones. According to the report, China has at least 10 high-level think tanks. The Party School of CPC, the National School of Administration, the Development Research Center of the State Council, the Chinese Academy of Social Science and the Academy of Macro-economic Research of the NDRC are all the important think tanks of China’s central government.

A habit has been gradually formed since the 12th National Congress of the Communist Party of China. That is: the central government, when the National Congress or the central conferences in which important decisions may be made approach, will entrust the Central Policies Research Center and some other administration institutions to give these research topics to those above-mentioned think tanks.

For example, the Chinese Academy of Social Science with more than 3000 researchers attended the draft of the report of the 17th National Congress of CPC. The Development Research Center of the State Council, which is famous for its economic studies, attends the survey and draft of the Government’s Work Report each year. The Academy of Macro-economic Research of the NDRC also plays an important role in the process of decision-makings of China’s central government in recent years. Besides those public channels, the think tanks also influence the decision-makers of the central government through the “inside consultation”.

Apart from those official think tanks, there are also some ones existing under the names of the colleges, like Beijing University’s China Economic Research Center and Tsinghua University’s Center for China Study, which are both funded by the US Ford Foundation. There are also some non-official think tanks, like the Unirule Institute of Economics founded by the economist Mao Yushi in 1993.

Zeng Peiyan，former Chinese vice premier

became the director of the newly founded CCIEE.

Predicament of Public Credibility

However, in recent years China’s think tanks have disappointing performances in the key fields, especially in fighting financial crisis and forecasting the development trend of China’s economic situation.

At the end of 2007, Yu Yongding, previously a member of the Monetary Policy Committee of the People’s Bank of China and the Institute of World Economics and Politics, the Chinese Academy of Social Science said that 4% is the upper limit of China’s inflation and China’s macro-economy will not see large up and down. However, two months later, the CPI saw an 8.7% growth while at the end of 2008 it fell to 1.2%. When the sub-prime debt crisis arose in the second half of 2007, many scholars in China said that the crisis is temporary and has little influence upon China. In July 2008 when the international oil price rose to 147 US dollars a barrel, many energy research institutes in China forecasted that the oil price will reach 200 US dollars a barrel at the end of 2008. However, last November, they all felt ashamed of the fact that the oil price fell to 35 US dollars a barrel.

The misjudgments and errors show the insufficiency and vacancy of China’s think tanks in satisfying the demand for information of the government. They have a large distance from the demand of government and public in scale, position, public credibility and influence.

Therefore, those think tanks and people working for them are criticized a lot. A member of the National People’s Political Consultative Conference named Li Gexin said in early March that some economists should be eliminated. Liaowang Weekly under the official Xinhua News Agency said in March that some scholars of the think tanks only want to make the senior officials happy. It said: “when the domestic economic development saw a depression from April to July 2008, those scholars even attributed the decline of economic growth rate to the achievement of macro economic adjustment.”

“The frequent misjudgments are attributed to the lack of professional knowledge and experience, as well as the fact that the think tanks are more and more tied by the interest groups,” said Jiang Yong, director of the Economic Safety Research Center, Chinese Academy of Modern International Relationship.

On the one hand, some think tanks under different state ministries begin to pay attention to the interest appeal of the ministries they belong to. Restricted by the “discipline” that their opinions must be in accordance with the ministries they belong to, the researchers must adopt the opinions good for their ministries, or they will be criticized by their leaders. Meanwhile, the lack of money forces some think tanks to receive the fund from the overseas institutions and multinationals for their survivals and researches. The Ford Foundation has already contributed 207 million US dollars to China’s think tanks since it set up Beijing branch in 1988. Many important research institutions and famous scholars in China have been aided by this foundation in different ways. Besides, some rich people in China also contribute to the think tanks. It is known that some coal bosses in Shanxi Province settled offices in Beijing and organized a think tank. They hired some experts to conduct the research, giving out “opinions which match their interests”.

In Jiang Yong’s opinion, the think tanks irregularly received the contribution from the outside, so they have to say what those contributors like to hear. Therefore, it is hard for them to provide the independent, objective and scientific consultation service for the government in macro decision-makings. Some even become the “spokesmen” of these interest groups.

Reconstruction of China’s Think Tank System

Obviously, the complicated economic situation has brought about serious challenges to China’s think tank system. The establishment of the high-level, comprehensive and half-official think tanks like the CCIEE is considered to be the start of reform to China’s think tanks.

Led by the former vice premier, the CCIEE’s level is unparalleled high. From what’s mentioned above we can see that the directors are from the state administration departments, social associations, large state-owned enterprises, chambers of commerce in Hong Kong and Macao, financial institutions and universities, forming a human resource distribution different from the ordinary government organizatons and social associations. As an independent and non-profitable organization, the CCIEE has hundreds of standing researchers, some of whom are belonging to the public service units. Actually, it has an open research platform which can accommodate more researchers.

An important symbol of the new think tank is that it is semi-official. Some analysts said that the semi-official think tank is what China needs. The official think tanks are restricted by the state ministries they belong to. Their main function is to explain and maintain the policies of the government instead of providing scientific reference for decision-makers. The public think tanks, however, are far away from the decision-makers. They can not fully understand and purpose and demand of the central government.

In the world, the communication between the think tanks with the political field is quite frequent and it is also usually seen that the think tanks attend the decision-makings of the government. The US former Secretary of State Dr. Kissinger and the former US National Security Advisor Z. Brzezinski took posts in Rockefeller Brothers Fund and RAND before joining in the White House. After they left the political field, they both returned to the think tanks. However, this phenomenon is rare in China. As the pioneer of the semi-official think tanks in China, the CCIEE has some retired senior government officials like Zeng Peiyan as the director, who can get close to the ordinary people as retired officials and reflect the opinions from the public to the government with the hand of their experience.

Actually, in recent years more and more retired officials take part in think tanks in China. Except Zeng Peiyan, Long Yongtu who became the Secretary-general of the 2003 Boao Forum for Asia is also very active. According to the statistics, there are 48 or 24% of the 200 directors of the think tanks in China are retired officials.

But some experts think that the development of independent public think tanks plays a more important role if China wants to form a consummate think tank system. The official or semi-official think tanks have limited ability to absorb the opinions from the experts and ordinary people outside the administration system. This is why some policies and laws have been widely criticized after coming out.

In the 1990s, the public think tanks saw their vigorous period. However, most of those public think tanks enjoying a high fame have vanished by now. The Unirule Institute of Economics is also struggling to survive.

The analyzers said that the public think tanks can not get the official approvals and the official think tanks which are the vested interest monopolize the industry of consultation services for the government and are not willing to let the public think tanks share the profit in this field. In addition, the limited space for speech makes it hard for the think tanks to have achievements. Therefore, these experts said that the coming-out of ideas and advices for policies should not be monopolized by the government in the future. Therefore, it is necessary to introduce the fair competition system between the official and non-official think tanks.